Weege:
Matthes, the silly season news is all starting to trickle in, but we already know where everyone is going, anyway. Not a lot of movement in the 450 class this year because so many guys are in the middle of multi-year deals. 250s have some stories, though. So far, we’ve seen Pierce Brown on a Monster Energy Yamaha Star Racing bike. We know Jordon Smith is heading to Triumph, and now we expect Austin Forkner is going to end up there, also. Technically we could say that even Garrett Marchbanks is a new hire at Monster Energy/Pro Circuit Kawasaki, but he moved over early and raced five races with them already. Let’s just focus on the Brown/Smith/Forkner group. First off, who do you think does best out of these three guys? (Later on, we’ll get into which team is making the best move here. We’ll focus on rider and results first).
Matthes:
Yeah, the silly season for the 250 class is way more interesting than the 450’s this year, we expect 2026 to be a big 450 year with Chase Sexton, Jason Anderson and Aaron Plessinger, to name a few, contracts up, Eli Tomac retiring and more. I think the big winner from this 250 season is Jordon Smith who got, I believe, a two year 250 deal with Triumph and then a 2027 450 deal. To get two years in this sport is hard, to get three is a huge win for Jordan for sure. I’ve heard that Austin Forkner’s deal is a big one, with multi- years as well so while some people given AF’s injury history might be wary of doing something like that, clearly Triumph with this, and Smith’s deal is not. I’m a fan of the comeback story for sure and Austin was writing one before his crash last year but to me, he’s gone too long with getting hurt for me to believe that now, with all that’s going on with him in the injury department, he’s going to stay healthy for an entire season. One thing I do believe for sure is that he can win races, and that bike is capable of winning races.
With Jordon, he quietly had a really good year on BLU in 2024. He was right there in SX and a consistent top 6-7 guy in MX. Podiums indoors and speed outdoors, what more could an OEM want really? Staying on the track, repping the brand out front and signing autographs is what he’s getting paid for and hopefully, his injuries of the past are over with. We will see speed and crashes with Jordon because that’s what he does. Also, let’s all embrace 2025 250SX and pray that Smith and RJ Hampshire are in the same region so we can watch one final year of them racing each other!
That leaves me with Brown and obviously his last impression is a strong one. Like, the GasGas guys were probably thinking “NOW you finally break through and win a race? At our FINAL race as a team?” … but yeah, that was great for sure and I think Brown has the chance to step up with that bike and team atmosphere that they have over there. I’m not saying it’s going to happen for sure but if I had to bet, Pierce could be the one to step up.
What you think?
Weege:
Look man, I can’t believe I’m going to write this… I just can’t quit Forkner! He’s no longer with Mitch Payton but can we still borrow Mitch’s phrase and go with “We can work with speed”? Forkner won a race this year. He gives Triumph a punchers’ chance at winning a race or races, and that is a massive head start for a brand that’s really still in building mode.
I understand this is crazy in many ways. First, I had the exact same thoughts of the Savatgy/Triumph teaming in Pro Motocross this year and that didn’t pan out. Second, Forkner is coming off of, checks notes, brain surgery. That’s scary. Also, just look at his trajectory. Forkner, due to injury, has drifted from Chase Sexton rival to Jett Lawrence rival to Haiden Deegan rival. Deegan was on 65s when Forkner turned pro! All of these facts point to this being a huge risk for everyone involved yet I am still intoxicated with Forkner’s talent. Once a winner always a winner? Can he finally deliver on his promise, but now on a brand that’s just getting started? I’ll get to Brown and Smitty in a moment, but tell me, am I crazy for thinking highly of Forkner’s chances this year?
Matthes:
Yes Weege, I think you’re crazy. He’s been injured too much for me to think he’s going to hold it together for a season to win a title. Like I said above, win some races- sure- maybe. His brain bleeding thing is pretty serious also, not sure how that affects someone you know? But bro…Pierce Brown at Vegas SMX!!!! I know, I know- it’s SMX and if you look at guys that did well at MEC or US Open at the end of the year, it didn’t really transfer over, but Brown was really, really, really good at Vegas. What if he gets better starts on the Yamaha? Sometimes, changing teams/programs is what invigorates riders- look at Forkner moving over to Ryno for training. It worked right? Sort of. Anyways, you’re spraying the Fork hype everywhere but forgetting about the Brown hype bro!
Weege:
Yes, the Pierce Brown thing. It would be easy to write off that Vegas SMX ride as one of those end-of-year one offs like you mentioned. Or, hey, remember JuJu Beaumer at Charlotte? I think there’s a chance we’re about to see a different Pierce Brown coming. Pierce has been a terrible starter his whole career. He literally told me this. When you think about it, how many times have you heard about Pierce flying at the test track in the preseason and then being kind of invisible at the races? That’s because he starts in 11th and finishes fourth in supercross. A lot. Vegas showed what he could with a good start. Finally. Now, is Star racing going to fix this? I know the rep is that these bikes are so fast that they automatically get starts. Outdoors, I do think their bikes still have a smidge of an advantage (not as big as it used to be) and that can help. I’m not sure that applies quite as much to supercross, which doesn’t offer that deep, bike-slowing dirt off the start. It all comes down to that. If Pierce and Star Yamaha can fix the starts, he will have a breakout season. But once a bad starter…often always a bad starter. Eli Tomac got better with Star, but he wasn’t as far back as Brown to start with. Hmmmmm.
Okay, let’s talk Jordon. Great move for Triumph here because, like his now-teammate Jalek Swoll, the expectations vary. Like, Swoll is good enough to podium, but he could also have a bad race, and I don’t think anyone will judge him too harshly. For Triumph it’s good to not have a must-win guy. That’s where Jordon is, too. Can he win and podium in supercross this year? He can. If he gets a sixth is anyone going to freak out? Nope. I don’t know if Jordon is the best of these three riders, but I think he’s the best move for a team. Forkner, although I can’t quit him, that is boom or bust, as we know. You know what’s crazier than me counting on Forkner? I’m now putting Jordon Smith in the “reliable guy who will stay healthy and get you solid results all season” category. Wow what a change!
Wait, did you say three years and a 450 deal for Jordon? Dude what a comeback for a guy who was almost… cooked (?) a few years ago. You think Jordon can become like a solid bike development/test rider guy? I remember when Kawi hired Timmy to test for Stew….
Matthes:
Yeah, good thing Kawasaki did that huh? SMH…anyways yeah it wasn’t that long ago Jordon was full privateer with the Firepower guys, he got hurt in SX and he didn’t race MX. Like, that couldn’t have felt very good for Smith who was coming off an entire missed year at Pro Circuit and then before that, was in position to win a 250SX title in opening laps of Las Vegas 2017. Like Justin Bogle, you just never know when things can turn your way (or unfortunately, also turn against you) in this sport. Good for Jordon who is a great guy to talk to at the races. Also, as you mentioned up top, we’re maybe missing Garrett Marchbanks in this discussion because we saw him race for Mitch Payton already. G is a conundrum for me. I’m not sure how, on your first race on a Kawasaki with minimal time, you ride so good at Unadilla and then never come close to backing that up. Like, shouldn’t you get BETTER with more time? Marchbanks is super talented, he works hard by all accounts but he’s very up and down, like most kids in this class I suppose, right Weege?
Weege:
Yeah we didn’t really hype up the Marchbanks move here because we’ve already seen it. He rode three Pro Motocross and three SMX races with the team, and you’re right, it’s odd Unadilla was his best. Does that not show how the mental side of getting fired up with a fresh start can overcome lack of testing and bike time? Crazy!
We all know Marchbanks is capable and has talent. It’s getting so crowded at Kawasaki, though, I feel like they’ve got like six dudes under multi-year deals plus Drew Adams in the wings. Marchbanks is kinda of an in betweener, not as boom or bust as some of the guys we’ve talked about (Forkner) but probably not yet at that JSmith stage of just being solid every week. That said, I don’t think Mitch Payton is looking for solid. He’s looking for wins! Mitch is the “We can work with speed” guy. I think the pressure is on Marchbanks to really knock a few out of the park this year, like get to “a guy” or “the guy” status. He can do it but that’s the knife edge of the 250 class. So many guys who are right on the verge of breaking through and becoming weekly podium or even race-winning guys. Marchie has got to finally make that step. After nearly getting on the podium at Unadilla, he went 12-40-10-12-10 in the last five races of 2024 (two nationals and three in SMX). Is that just a warmup and adjustment period?